OPINION: The law of averages

The laws of averages would have you believe that a rare event would occur after a long period of non-occurrences. Much like certain roulette aficionados at a casino would place their bet on a particular number. Having said that, success for such gamblers have not been in any way more successful than for your average Joe. The law of averages is calculated by casinos to their benefit, after all, the house rarely ever loses. This begs the question, can you ever consistently beat the law of averages in marketing a product or brand, or getting a company to change the way things are ever done? Can anyone bowl a perfect score time and time again?

A few years ago I had the privilege to discuss econometrics and communications with a specialist in the field. Good communications models could build a case of what works for any given campaign, from different marketing factors to awareness levels to the impact of various media. Having spent half of my working life in a creative agency I suggested that great creatives would have a more than significant impact on a campaign. Much to my surprise, that was not the case.

After a much debated and hotly contested discussion into sufficient sample size and measurement of creativity, I had been soundly defeated by a comment. Have you ever seen any client, campaign or agency which could consistently deliver great creatives time after time on a continuous basis?

That said, most casino-goers could not say they beat the house on a continuous basis. So I guess there is some truth in that.

Historically, there have been many figures who have broken the law of averages and literally beaten the odds and changed companies, communities, countries, or even the world. As I drove my car this morning, I am reminded of Henry Ford, the guy who said ‘Any customer can have a car painted any colour that he wants so long as it is black’. Although credited with the production of the Model T Ford, his true achievement was in its mass production where he revolutionised the industrial age by the assembly line method of production, gaining efficiency and cutting costs. He shocked the world by giving his employees higher than average salaries for that time as it would solve his labor shortage issues and turnover. His vision was that everyone could own a car and more so the people who worked for him. Incidentally, black was the color he chose because it was the quickest to dry and therefore the cheapest.

There are many countries in the world who went through a violent birth of waging war in gaining their independence. Mohandas Gandhi was a man who broke the laws of averages by doing quite the opposite, that of waging peace. It could be truly said that he waged it as vigorously as a general who waged war on the battlefield. He employed the philosophy of non-cooperation, non-violence and peaceful resistance as his weapons of choice. The impact of his actions in waging peace have gained him the support of the people in finally achieving their goal, that of independence. This sparked many other peaceful revolutions thereafter.

Fast forward to today, we are reminded of another person who recently passed away who broke the laws of averages. A person whose larger-than-life character, and whose defining vision have soundly created, recreated and defined markets in ways that would leave analysts, researchers and consumers continuously asking what's next. Steve Jobs has redefined the operating system market, the animation movie genre, the music industry, telecommunications, micro-applications software, video content, and right down to publishing. Rarely has anyone had such an impact in such a plethora of industries.

Breaking the laws of averages in all of the above cases have become defining moments in their time, and for time to come. Each of these individuals enshrined qualities that remind all of us that there will be a better tomorrow because of their actions. They were driven by three hings that we should remember for ourselves to create our own defining moments.

1. Clarity of Vision
2. Passion to Succeed
3. Doing Things Differently

The communications industry today is in a state of change. Change creates fear and fear drives people in to doing what they are comfortable with. Having the above three qualities allows us to forge and step ahead iin what we do today to define our own new markets and ways in which we do things. The bane of our existence today is if we accept the normal and the ordinary in our lives to just get by. Challenging the status quo is a mindset that we need to adopt.

After all, average is such a dirty word.