China and India, TV and internet set for biggest ad growth : Magnaglobal

2010’s recovery-year growth rate of +6.9 per cent beat prior growth expectations of +5.6 per cent.

India and China lead the way, the forecast says, with India’s advertising economy set to rise by 21 per cent during 2011, to generate over US$5 billion. China should be even more robust, with ad revenues up 16.6 per cent on average over the next five years - becoming the second largest market globally by 2013, generating US$57.4 billion in ad revenues by 2016.

Magnaglobal says video retains its dominance around the world, with more than 40 per cent of advertising, a total of USD$169 billion, relying on TV in 2011. Globally the medium should grow by 7.5 per cent on average through 2016.  

Magnaglobal's forecasts were released at the same time as those of rival media agency Zenith Optimedia.

Online advertising will grow even faster, overtaking newspapers as the world’s second-largest advertising medium by 2013, and total US$117 billion in 2016.  This will occur largely due to market expansion as new advertisers have become the backbone of that medium.  Radio and out-of-home will grow on a global basis, up by 4.1 per cent and 8 per cent, respectively, over the next five years, slightly ahead of growth trends expected for 2011.  

Magnaglobal, for the first time, has introduced global estimates for mobile, online video and digital out-of-home advertising, along with cinema.

In 2011, they estimate that online video will capture US$4.7 billion in global ad revenues, which should rise by 19.6 per cent each year through 2016, by which point the sector will generate US$11.4 billion.  

Mobile advertising is smaller, at US$2.7 billion, and will grow at a similar pace.  By 2016, media owners should earn US$6.6 billion from mobile advertising.  

Digital outdoor advertising is increasingly important, but is smaller than mobile in scale in 2011 (at US$2.6 billion in ad revenues) and should grow at a slower rate in years ahead, totaling US$5.2 billion by 2016.  

Cinema captured US$2.8 billion in 2011, and will grow at an average rate of 9.1 per cent over the following five years.