US election outcome will affect Asia’s workforce and productivity: Anthony Scaramucci

Former White House communications director, financier, and founder and managing partner at SkyBridge Capital, Anthony Scaramucci, is no stranger to the world of finance and international trade. Known for his brief but high-profile communications stint with the Trump administration in 2017, Scaramucci recently took the stage at the three-day Journal House event for The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) in Singapore, one of several appearances during his visit. During the event, he was interviewed by Peter Landers, WSJ's Asia bureau chief.

With characteristic candour, during his opening, Scaramucci touched on his infamous 11-day tenure at the White House—even jokingly thanking Landers for his polite approach to the subject. The man affectionately termed ‘The Mooch’ by media then reiterated that despite his short tenure with the previous administration, he had spent considerable time advising the former president on communications strategies in 2016, quipping, “I know the son of a b**** really well and I can tell you how he thinks.” This set the tone for an animated discussion that covered the evolving geopolitical landscape, US-China relations, and the broader implications of the upcoming US election on Asian markets.

Scaramucci painted a picture of the stakes surrounding the upcoming US election, drawing on his personal experience and deep ties within American politics. He highlighted that the election is more than just a domestic issue; it has profound implications for international trade, economic stability, and the global business environment. Reflecting on his transition from supporting Trump in 2016 to now backing vice president Kamala Harris, Scaramucci was clear about his shift in allegiance. “Harris is more predictable; she understands the economic impact of diplomacy,” he stated, emphasising the importance of stable and measured leadership in contrast to the volatility he witnessed firsthand.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner at SkyBridge, talks with Peter Landers at Journal House in Singapore on Wednesday, September 18, 2024. Photo by Vincent Nghai for the Wall Street Journal.

Discussing his decision to move away from Trump, Scaramucci noted, “I’ve been on the inside, and I’ve seen the chaos.” He went on to elaborate that while he initially supported Trump’s stance on deregulation and tax reform, the escalating trade wars, inconsistent foreign policy, and internal dysfunction pushed him to reconsider. “It’s not just about business-friendly policies; it’s about who can execute them effectively without alienating global partners,” he said, pointing to Harris as a leader who can restore relationships strained under the previous administration.

Scaramucci’s commentary extended beyond US borders, touching on how key Asian markets perceive the upcoming election. He specifically highlighted Japan’s cautious stance, referencing a recent poll where 70% of Japanese respondents preferred Harris over Trump. “Countries like Japan have a hereditary memory of the spectre and rise of authoritarianism,” he explained, suggesting that this historical context makes Japanese businesses wary of unpredictable leadership styles.

He stressed that Japanese companies, known for their long-term planning, are closely watching how the US election unfolds. “Stability is everything for Japan,” Scaramucci noted, emphasising that consistent trade policies and diplomatic predictability are crucial for the region. The implications for Japanese businesses are clear: A stable US administration could mean sustained growth and continued investment in US-Japan trade partnerships, whereas volatility could force them to hedge their strategies, potentially shifting more focus towards regional allies and away from a less predictable US market.

After his session at Journal House, Scaramucci spoke exclusively to Campaign, drilling down into the specific impacts on Asia.

According to a recent Citi Research report, a Trump administration could see tariffs of up to 60% against China and 10% for many other countries, including those in Asia without robust free trade agreements. This would likely hit East Asian economies the hardest, creating a negative growth shock that could reverberate through Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Vietnam, and Singapore. The report suggests that the erosion of Chinese competitiveness would not necessarily benefit other Asian exporters, as diverted Chinese goods would flood third markets, creating new challenges. According to insights from the report, the financial conditions under a Trump administration could undermine capital flows to emerging markets in Asia, squeeze funding conditions, and limit monetary policy flexibility, posing significant challenges for economies like Indonesia, Thailand, and Korea.

Scaramucci echoed these concerns, cautioning that a potential return to Trump-era policies could disrupt business operations and regional stability. He advised that businesses in Asia must prepare for an unpredictable landscape, suggesting that companies need to focus on strategic resilience and adaptability. “The election outcome could directly affect how Asian companies strategise their workforce and operations. A shift towards isolationist policies might push costs higher and force businesses to rethink how they manage their resources,” he warned.

He elaborated on the broader implications, particularly for workforce and productivity in the region. “If the Republicans push through protectionist measures, we’re looking at a scenario where productivity in Asia could be hampered by the need to adapt quickly to changing trade conditions,” Scaramucci said. He stressed the importance of clear communication strategies for companies navigating these turbulent times, highlighting that how businesses position themselves and communicate stability will be crucial in maintaining investor and consumer confidence.

Scaramucci also discussed the broader impact on US-Asia trade relations, suggesting that businesses need to be proactive in their strategic planning, emphasising the need for companies to anticipate shifts and remain flexible in their approaches, especially given the interconnectedness of Asian economies with the global market. “The workforce in Asia is intricately linked to the global economy, and any major policy shift in the US could ripple through, affecting job security and overall business dynamics,” he explained. 

As he wrapped up, Scaramucci reiterated his support for the Democrats, emphasising the importance of stability for global markets. “Democrats are more likely to keep the flow of international business steady, which is crucial for maintaining productivity and efficiency in Asia’s interconnected industries."