China’s social Key Opinion Leader (KOL) market is projected to reach RMB 93 billion (US$13 billion) by 2025, accounting for 58% of global KOL spend and 17% of the country’s total brand advertising investment, according to Ebiquity.
However, the research signals a maturing market where growth is expected to slow to 1% in 2026 due to economic headwinds before rebounding to 6% in 2027. While overall social advertising continues to climb, brands are increasingly prioritising measurable ROI over sheer scale, shifting investment away from top-tier KOLs.
The creator ecosystem is expanding rapidly, with nearly 2.4 million commercial creators now operating across Douyin, Weibo, Bilibili, and RedNote, up from 0.88 million in 2022.
What's important for brands here is that the composition of creators on these platforms differs sharply. RedNote is dominated by long-tail and amateur creators (85%), which implies a fragmented, lower-cost environment. Bilibili, by contrast, maintains a concentrated pool of mid- and top-tier KOLs (60%) that offers higher-quality, premium inventory. Douyin and Weibo have plateaued mainly, with growth focused on junior creators.
Pricing trends highlight platform-specific dynamics: head- and mid-tier costs are rising on Douyin and WeChat, while RedNote sees head-tier declines but mid-tail spikes, signalling diversification of commercial opportunities. Bilibili is experiencing across-the-board price growth, whereas Weibo shows moderate head-tier decline but steady mid-tier appreciation.
Ebiquity interprets these trends as a structural shift: China’s KOL market is moving from top-heavy “scale expansion” to a more diversified, ROI-driven model, where mid- and long-tail creators are central to brand strategies.
Below are five data charts for easy consumption.
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