China to overtake Germany as third largest ad market in 2011: Zenith Optimedia

China is currently just over half (52 per cent) the size of Japan, the second-largest ad market, and will be three-quarters (76 per cent) of its size in 2013. The forecast pitches that China will grow 51 per cent between 2010 and 2013.

Overall, the outlook for advertising in the whole Asia-Pacific region continues to look healthy for at least the next three years with the region minus Japan set to grow by 36 per cent between 2010 and 2013.

“The key result of this update is the continued rise of developing markets and digital media, and their central role in driving global growth,” said Steve King, Zenith Optimedia’s worldwide CEO.

Zenith Optimedia now estimates global ad expenditure will have grown 4.9 per cent by the end of 2010. Ad expenditure has recovered more rapidly than expected in every region this year, as advertisers regained some of their confidence after an alarming 2009.

"Corporate profitability has rebounded, and many companies have built up large reserves of cash, leaving them in a much more secure position to invest for the future. We forecast the recovery in ad expenditure to continue at a steady pace over the next three years, with 4.6 per cent growth in 2011 and 5.2 per cent growth in both 2012 and 2013," said a company statement.

In recent years there has been a big difference between the growth rates of developed and developing markets, and Zenith Optimedia expects this to continue, caused by the much stronger economic growth of the developing markets.

Between 2010 and 2013, it forecasts Japan to grow by five per cent, North America to grow by nine per cent and Western Europe to grow by 10 per cent. Meanwhile Zenith Optimedia forecasts Latin America to grow by 26 per cent, Central and Eastern Europe by 31 per cent, Asia Pacific by 23 per cent, and Asia Pacific excluding Japan to grow by 36 per cent.

The rest of the world (primarily Middle East and Africa) will grow by 24 per cent. Developing markets – defined here as everywhere outside North America, Western Europe and Japan – will increase their share of the global ad market from 31.5 per cent in 2010 to 35.9 per cent in 2013.