The art of dealing with the new trade order

On Friday April 4 2025 the S&P 500 fell by a bigger percentage than it did on Tuesday September 11 2001. And it spread, everywhere, fast.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index went on to drop by more in a single session than it had on any day in the past 28 years, longer than many readers of Campaign have been alive. 

In a rose garden full of tulips, President Donald Trump had presented some quirky maths, claimed the richest society in history to be an economic victim, targeted an island of penguins and in one stroke changed the global trading system more than any act since the Second World War. But, despite the gasps of the world’s media, it was a long-held belief that was made explicit and voted for in huge numbers, and it could well bring manufacturing jobs back to those states that matter most to this administration. I am making no political statement here, just viewing it through the lens of our industry.

As was discussed in Campaign last week, the share prices of the advertising holding groups all took a hit, and they were already feeling the pressure from weakening forecasts since the start of the year. But, there’s more to the emerging global trade situation for our industry to consider than just its immediate impact on shareholders and incentive schemes. 

Most obviously, the pressure on marketing budgets is inevitably going to increase even further. We all know that when costs rise, brands try to avoid passing them all on to customers, so they have to tighten their belts, and marketing is always among the first "discretionary" cuts to be made. Of course, we all also know that’s foolhardy, and there are endless case studies and PIMS decks (profit impact of marketing strategies) to call upon to try to argue this as a mistake, but in the face of uncertain trade policies, proven best practices can easily go unheeded. 

And yet for some businesses the only choice will be to turn to their brands even more. Apple and the other electronic titans have just received a reprieve, but many other sectors are still under enormous pressure, including furniture, toys, apparel, footwear and sports equipment. Estimates are that the price of Nike’s goods will rise 10%-12% in the US, taking a pair of Air Jordan 1 High to more than $200 for the first time. Against that sort of rise, it will be the strength of the Nike brand that will support continued sales. 

And so, as is often the case in times of global change, we will all be required to do even more, with even less. This will undoubtedly accelerate the shift to greater AI-driven creativity in all that we do, making us faster, more efficient and more effective. The best-placed marketing teams will be those with the most advanced and embedded AI capabilities. 

But beyond the technological imperatives, there could be more fundamental cultural changes to which we will also have to adapt and embrace. Before I get to those, forgive me for a technical interlude… the big story of these trade wars hasn’t actually been the falling share prices, it has been the rising US Treasury yields. These are US government bonds. The safest of all investment products. In every other rapid stock market decline, investors have rushed to buy Treasuries as a popular safe haven, thereby driving yields down. But not this time. This time investors sold Treasuries, and in a big way. Initially it was hedge funds covering margin calls and basis trades, but that was quickly superseded by foreign governments who dumped vast swathes of their US Treasury stockpiles. As uncertainty grew, they just wanted less exposure to the US and its currency. 

So right now, it’s feeling like the world increasingly wants to get off the US merry-go-round.  And that’s a big thing for us in advertising and marketing to consider. If country after country starts turning away from the US, the mega brands that come from that market will need to adapt to a landscape where their provenance is becoming a headwind. Even before last week, YouGov reported that more than half of people in Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%) and Denmark (74%) now have an unfavourable opinion of the US.

That’s a big drop from the overwhelmingly positive sentiment of the last decade, including President Trump’s first term. And we can see it already filtering through to behaviours, witness the rapidly falling Tesla sales in Europe where many people are now uncomfortable with its owner. 

If this tariff event pushes broad favourability levels even lower, those of us who work with so many American super brands will have to think more smartly and sensitively as we try to remind audiences that these are enduring and loved global icons that are part of the fabric of their lives wherever they live.  

At the same time, I suspect we might soon find ourselves also working with currently unknown and often quite different brands. Many countries are going to be making new friends and new trading agreements. Doubtless the EU, China, India and the UAE will turn increasingly to each other. And that will bring new products, new cultures, new behaviours and a wealth of new opportunities for marketers around the world as we set about creating demand for things like Chinese cars, Arabian financial services and Indian electronics. 

Understandably, many observers like to think this is all a bit overblown and will pass by quickly enough, so things can settle back to normal. I’m not so sure.

No matter how much the US rolls back in the next 90 days, or however many extraordinary concessions they win from their trading partners, this genie will not easily go back in the bottle. No future administration will remove the 10% tariff floor, because they won’t want to surrender the revenue once it starts pouring in. But beyond that, this is emotional and speaks to the values of certainty, trust and proportionality that have for so long been key to the global trading and financial systems. The biggest advertising and marketing job of all might just be to return these to "brand America" throughout a world that right now might happily accept one less Starbucks in their lives.   

And so, we might be at a fundamental pivot point for advertisers and agencies. And, in truth, it’s very exciting. How can we show the power of new technologies, reinforce the importance of marketing under cost pressures, support the world’s favourite brands through some turbulence and build new markets for products and names so far unknown. Time to make marketing great again.

David Golding is the founder of New Commercial Arts