Global adspend growth forecasts cut by nearly $20 billion due to market volatility

The ad market is experiencing a downgrade with global adspend growth forecasts cut by $19.8 billion due to market volatility, according to a report by WARC. 

The global ad market is now expected to grow 6.7% this year – a 0.9 percentage point lower than the previous forecast. Although alternative modelling based on an OECD model (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) predicts lower growth at 6.4% for 2025. 

The ad industry is set to be worth $1.15 trillion this year, which is a still $72.9 billion increase (6.7%) from 2024.

This is due to a number of factors including a rising risk of stagnation and recession as a result of new trade tariffs in H2 2025.

In addition to economic uncertainty, regulatory pressure is leading to more risk and uncertainty with the EU tightening rules on Google and Apple; alongside the US anti-trust cases against Google and TikTok. 

The sectors most impacted include automotive, which is expected to decline by 7.4% in adspend as production stalls; and retail with adspend down by 5.3% due to supply chain disruptions. Growth for tech has also been cut from 13.8% in the November forecast to 6.2% in 2025. 

According to WARC’s report, ad markets are impacted worldwide with growth in the US predicted to slow to 5.7% in 2025, compared to 13.1% in 2024. Similarly, growth in China is expected at 5.3% and slowing further in 2026.

Other markets to be impacted negatively include Japan and Germany, which have a high risk of economic stagnation. The UK is forecast to have a 7.1% increase in growth, with 82.6% of spend going into digital. 

WARC predicts that online platforms will continue to thrive despite economic pressures with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, in particular, expected to control 50% of the market by 2029. 

Social media adspend will continue to grow – up by 12.1% and amounting to $286.2 billion in revenue this year – with TikTok leading at 23.6%. Retail media is also expected to be the fastest-growing channel at 15.4%. 

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence and Forecasting at WARC, said: “The global ad market faces mounting uncertainty as trade tariffs, economic stagnation, and tightening regulation disrupt key sectors – leading us to cut growth prospects by $20 billion over the next two years. Automakers, retailers, and tech brands in particular are now reigning in adspend amid rising manufacturing costs and mounting supply chain pressures.

“Despite the growing volatility, digital advertising remains strong. [...] Regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the US further compound risks to growth, however, advertisers must be nimble in order to seize initiative in this shifting landscape.”

This article was first published in sister-publication Performance Marketing World.